Tim Meehan: what are you thinking?

A viewing party this Friday to watch the wedding between a royal and his consort!
A Brit, no less!

Surely, you remember; we fought a war. People died. We won! They lost!

We poured tea into Boston harbor. The real tea party, back before Boston was simply the home of the Patriots,  Bruins, Celtics and the Red Sox.

Aging is a terrible thing. So in case your memory is fading: our forefathers kicked their redcoat butts back to that squalid island in the North Sea they call home. They did it so we could live in the home of the brave and the land of the free.

Our ancestors fought a war so we wouldn’t have to pay any attention to this royal nonsense. No more your majesty this; no more God Save the Queen.

And now here you are; down on one knee; genuflecting before bonnie Prince Bill.

MAC-Lean can be excused. Rice, there is still time to educate him.

But Meehan – you have been an honorable opponent and an excellent ally in the past. So this is a sad, sad sight.

Don’t be surprised if the guys in the three corner hats crash your jamboree.
In the interim, I have to make a call to Dublin.

Beginning January 1, 2011 we are officially embracing the nickname. We have renamed the firm KSE Partners, LLP. The name change better reflects who we are and what we do. We have come a long way in 23 years. We began as Vermont lobbyists; today we are a strategic communications firm with offices in Montpelier, Cambridge, MA and the Washington, DC area.

Steve Kimbell and I founded the firm working from remote locations in Franklin and Orange Counties. Anya Rader, now Anya Rader Wallack, our one employee, worked from her home in Barre Town. Today KSE has six partners and 20 employees working in three states and the District of Columbia.

The new name reflects personnel changes and growth. Steve retired last summer and has joined the administration of Governor-elect Peter Shumlin. Anya, after a long absence from Vermont, has joined the Shumlin team as well. We wish them both well in their new jobs.

KSE marches on and today we have four integrated strategic communications products that we offer clients.

First, KSE remains the premier Vermont lobbying firm. When lawmakers convene in the Capitol in January, eight of us will be in the statehouse for our clients; five will be in the building every day. Managing Partner Chuck Storrow heads our Vermont lobbying team that also includes Partner Clare Buckley and Associates Nick Sherman, Todd Bailey and Jill Sudoff-Guerin. Kevin Ellis, Jackie Hughes and I will also be in the statehouse regularly.

Kevin Ellis heads up KSE Communications, where clients get cutting-edge public relations, web strategy, crisis communications and that subtle mix of political and media strategy needed in a fast-changing business environment. The team includes Senior VP Diane Zeigler, who boasts deep expertise in, web strategy, audience ID, advertising and marketing. Elliott Bent and Jenna Dimmick run social media campaigns, organize events and handle media relations, writing and research.

KSE FOCUS is our 50-state government affairs business headed by Partners Bob Sherman and Scott Mackey. We are strategic government affairs advisers to dozens of clients in the US and Europe. FOCUS offers clients a wide range of government affairs, communications and research services. Our 13-member staff monitors and reports on legislation and regulations for clients in all states. We help clients devise legislative strategies and hire lobbyists when needed from our list of 175 firms in each of the state capitals. FOCUS Associate Tammy Cota serves as executive director of the Internet Alliance, the leading national Internet trade association working in state legislatures

Partner Scott Mackey, the former chief economist at the National Conference of State Legislatures, is a nationally recognized tax expert who has provided strategic counsel on tax issues to the nation’s largest wireless telecommunications providers for more than a decade.

Kimbell Storrow Buckley Hughes, LLP is our associated law firm. Jackie Hughes heads this practice. The law firm represents a broad range of financial services, insurance, health care, public utility and land use clients.   We assist our clients in dealing with complex and routine regulatory and legal issues.


In the last two decades plus, Kimbell Sherman Ellis became a successful, powerful brand. One testimonial to our success is that we have clients today that joined us 23 years ago. We are successful because we give clients bold, well-reasoned, strategic advice, excellent service and successful government and public affairs solutions. Now our letterhead is changing; we are KSE Partners, LLP. Our business will continue to grow and evolve but our vision and client service will remain world class.

Montpelier was awash election-day post-mortem this week. The governor’s race, won by Democrat Peter Shumlin generated most of the chatter. The most frequent comment on the Capital Grounds political circuit was:

“Dubie would have won the election if he had not gone negative.” A companion to this was: “Dubie stayed negative way too long, he should have been upbeat in the final week.”

These comments are foolish and shortsighted. Both candidates went negative and the messages ran until Election Day. This analysis suggests that a single event or strategy can assure a victory or doom a candidacy. A hotly contested race for governor is a marathon not a sprint. The details matter. But no single detail or decision by itself can lead to defeat.

“But what about Howard Dean,” the naysayers will grumble, “Didn’t the ‘scream’ derail the Dean presidency?”

It did not. It was simply a nail in the coffin of a campaign that began brilliantly and was already sputtering. The ”scream” did not bring down Howard Dean, the American voter was simply not ready for his populist, liberal agenda. The country is red people! And many of the blues are moderate at best. If anything, Howard Dean helped make it possible for Barack Obama to win four years later.

Back to the Vermont governor’s race! A campaign has a thousand moving parts. When developing a plan, campaign managers often work backwards from Election Day and script every move the candidate will make, every breath the candidate will take in the months ahead.

A winning strategy begins with the best candidate. This has nothing to do with policy. It’s about who can communicate best with voters on the street, at candidate forums and in their living rooms in the days ahead.

Clearly Shumlin was the best candidate. He is an outstanding, at times mesmerizing communicator. He can make people believe he is talking only to them. Shumlin pulled this off because he kept it simple. Always simple!

He had the best message: Close Vermont Yankee, pass single-payer health care, create jobs and protect a woman’s right to choose. Shumlin never got lost in the details. It did not matter, for example, that “choice” was not threatened in Vermont. Shumlin stayed on message. The message resonated.

Dubie was not the best candidate. He is a lousy communicator and his handlers knew this from the outset. They tried to manage his ponderous, confusing delivery and some of their messaging was brilliant. For example, Dubie’s “choice” advertising in the final weeks was the best television of the entire campaign. It used attractive, believable Vermont women to deliver a simple, efficient, crisp message. Not surprisingly though, Brian Dubie was not in this ad.

Dubie could not pull off simple and efficient. His natural speaking style is to wander around an issue and this made him appear, unsure indecisive and confused. Dubie tried to articulate a plan but he could not deliver a message. This hurt him.

Elections are also about things that have nothing to do with the candidate like “get out the vote” on Election Day. Shumlin bragged about his effort at Democratic Headquarters on Election Night. The Democrats’ coordinated campaign did deliver for their candidate but just barely.

David Healy has posted a terrific color-coded map on “Vermont Digger” that tells the story of the election town by town. The map illustrates that the governor’s race was close in almost every community and that the red tide that swept the nation is alive in Vermont; it just has not crested here yet.

Elections are about fundraising and spending money at the right time and in the right place. Both candidates had enough money and the DNC and RNC did their part. The airwaves were awash in advertising from both campaigns and third parties. Both went negative early and it set a tone that some did not like.

Come on people! Fiscal policy and highway construction make for lousy television. They do not sell newspapers either. Pinocchio and pornographers make people pay attention. Candidates use the airwaves to attract voters not put them to sleep. Shumlin’s advertising, like his overall message, was sharper and more consistent.

Momentum is important. Shumlin peaked at the end of the five-way Democratic primary. He had been in third place in most polls. Shumlin showed us twice now that he is a closer.

He was at his best in the final week of both campaigns when people were paying attention. In the week before the General Election Shumlin travelled Vermont with Senator Leahy and Congressman Welch, both very popular politicians. This gave him momentum; it suggested a sense of inevitability.

Finally Shumlin had the best campaign staff. He had help from the party and many volunteers. But the race was run by Alex MacLean, his 27-year-old campaign manager from the Northeast Kingdom who lived and breathed the election for months. Alex had an overwhelming job; she managed the candidate and the campaign. She was the spokesperson and press secretary. She bought and organized the media. She was the chief worrier; her brow often creased; her eyes wide and weary. Alex did a terrific job. Hopefully she is sleeping now.

There are five credible, articulate, energetic candidates seeking the Democratic nomination for governor. The party has produced a plethora of talented candidates who believe 2010 is their year: the Senate President Pro Tem, the Secretary of State, the chairs of the Senate Appropriations and Health and Welfare Committees and a former House Majority Whip.

Wow!

Each has an impressive political and personal track record. Each could be elected governor. Too bad they can’t win this election. There is no way a Democrat can survive a bruising, bare-knuckled, five-way primary in September and win a general election seven weeks later.

No way! It can not be done!

Peter Shumlin, Deb Markowitz, Doug Racine, Susan Bartlett and Matt Dunne know this is the truth. Democratic donors who spend millions to elect not just run candidates for office know this is the truth. The Vermont media recognizes this is the truth. And perhaps most importantly the lieutenant governor can see the truth. In fact, he is praying that God is a Republican and that Anthony Pollina signs on as a Democrat and makes it a six-way race.

Peter Shumlin

Deb Markowitz

Doug Racine

Susan Bartlett

Matt Dunne

Last weekend the Democrats got a snapshot of what the next nine months will look like. Four of the candidates and one surrogate squared off before a coalition of environmental groups at Vermont Technical College. They networked; they browsed; they presented. They scraped and scrapped, bowed and genuflected before a roomful of Democrats to demonstrate why they are better; why they should be anointed.

Dubie meanwhile was at a parade in Barre City, arguably a Democratic town. Dubie was talking to voters, most of whom have not yet made up their mind. He’ll be doing this every week for the next year while the Democrats speak to the converted and each other.

The numbers tell the story. In the last decade, no more than 40,000 Vermonters have ever voted in a primary election for governor. Let’s assume this next election draws an unprecedented 60,000 voters. In a five way race, 35 percent of the vote or 21,000 will win. So on primary day the Democratic candidate will have made 21,000 voters happy and disappointed 39,000 others.

Let’s also assume it will take as many votes to win in 2010 as it did in 2008 when Jim Douglas got about 170,000 votes for about 53 percent. The Democrat and Independent candidates got 139,000 votes together; if you recall the Democrat ran third. So the primary winner will need to find about 149,000 votes in seven weeks. It can not be done.

The arguments are endless. Perhaps, most importantly there isn’t enough money. Something has to give. Something has to change. Perhaps the Democrats should draw straws; the odds that anyone of them could be elected governor would go up.