Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie, the presumptive GOP nominee for governor, has a “mortal lock” on the election next November. He will win the governor’s race. He will be Vermont’s next governor.
There are five credible, articulate, energetic candidates seeking the Democratic nomination for governor. The party has produced a plethora of talented candidates who believe 2010 is their year: the Senate President Pro Tem, the Secretary of State, the chairs of the Senate Appropriations and Health and Welfare Committees and a former House Majority Whip.
Wow!
Each has an impressive political and personal track record. Each could be elected governor. Too bad they can’t win this election. There is no way a Democrat can survive a bruising, bare-knuckled, five-way primary in September and win a general election seven weeks later.
No way! It can not be done!
Peter Shumlin, Deb Markowitz, Doug Racine, Susan Bartlett and Matt Dunne know this is the truth. Democratic donors who spend millions to elect not just run candidates for office know this is the truth. The Vermont media recognizes this is the truth. And perhaps most importantly the lieutenant governor can see the truth. In fact, he is praying that God is a Republican and that Anthony Pollina signs on as a Democrat and makes it a six-way race.
Last weekend the Democrats got a snapshot of what the next nine months will look like. Four of the candidates and one surrogate squared off before a coalition of environmental groups at Vermont Technical College. They networked; they browsed; they presented. They scraped and scrapped, bowed and genuflected before a roomful of Democrats to demonstrate why they are better; why they should be anointed.
Dubie meanwhile was at a parade in Barre City, arguably a Democratic town. Dubie was talking to voters, most of whom have not yet made up their mind. He’ll be doing this every week for the next year while the Democrats speak to the converted and each other.
The numbers tell the story. In the last decade, no more than 40,000 Vermonters have ever voted in a primary election for governor. Let’s assume this next election draws an unprecedented 60,000 voters. In a five way race, 35 percent of the vote or 21,000 will win. So on primary day the Democratic candidate will have made 21,000 voters happy and disappointed 39,000 others.
Let’s also assume it will take as many votes to win in 2010 as it did in 2008 when Jim Douglas got about 170,000 votes for about 53 percent. The Democrat and Independent candidates got 139,000 votes together; if you recall the Democrat ran third. So the primary winner will need to find about 149,000 votes in seven weeks. It can not be done.
The arguments are endless. Perhaps, most importantly there isn’t enough money. Something has to give. Something has to change. Perhaps the Democrats should draw straws; the odds that anyone of them could be elected governor would go up.
What do you think the odds are of a bill passing the legislature next year moving up the date of the primary election?
This makes it sound like a shoe in, but I know we have to work for Brian in order to be sure that he is our next Governor.
Just for argument’s sake: In most elections, the past is not prologue. Forget the trials, tribulations and vote tallies for the Dems’ primary; one of them will get the nomination and thus in Vermont can be assured of starting the general election campaign with a numerical advantage, assuming Pollina falls into a hole, which seems likely. Dubie, whatever his hidden strengths, is no Douglas and, since this is a non-presidential election year, it is highly unlikely that the overall turnout will be as high as it was in 2008. Thus if only die-hard Dems and die-hard GOPers vote, then the Democrat wins because the liberals simply out-number the others in this state. Toss in a modest number of new voters (young) and a ho-hum turnout of true independents, then the election could turn on who runs the best campaign. At least a couple of the Democrats may be able to perform considering that out-campaigning Dubie should be relatively easy at least among tuned-in voters. Then factor in a surprise, quick visit from Prince Obama, aided and abetted by quiet but effective use of the Leahy crowd and also take notice of the high likely that Dubie will shoot himself in the foot at least once and can’t expect much help from anyone. So, here’s the bottom line: I’ll bet you a breakfast that Dubie is not our next governor.
Bartlett was at the parade with Dubie.
wkp’s comments make sense.
The main difference between the Dems is style & substance. Assuming the Dems run a primary that refrains from the negative, the winner comes out of the primary with 40% of the vote from people who will not support a Republican under any circumstances.
Look for the Dem who speaks to the people about the issues important to them, is moderate and demonstrates knowledge and substance and you will find the next governor.