By Kevin Ellis and Bob Sherman
The Vermont primaries are over and the general election campaign is underway but the governor’s race remains a mess as no clear winner emerged in the five-way democratic race. A recount is underway. Senator Peter Shumlin leads the crowded field by 197 votes. Issues we are pondering –
1. Who is the frontrunner now? Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, the GOP candidate, gets a free ride for at least two weeks or until the recount is done. So we say Dubie is out front for now. He is taking advantage of the confusion among Democrats, campaigning hard, holding press conferences and pressing the flesh like an incumbent without an opponent. He has a lot of money and appears to be spending it. He has earned favorable press attention for his effort , or at least a lack of critical attention.
2. Does Dubie’s hard launch have a downside? Sure! The media is beginning to focus – a real danger for him and something he successfully avoided all summer. For example, he has promised lower taxes at a time when Vermont, like most states, is broke. He will not say what programs he will eliminate to pay for his tax cut. He won’t even take questions on the subject. His campaign manager cuts them off. We wonder why the press doesn’t simply report: “Campaign manager then cut off further questions.” The press needs to step up and hold candidates accountable. The days of the media being invisible are long gone. If reporters can’t get the inside political nuances in the paper, they should put it in a blog. Political readers are starving for that stuff. (Update – as usual, Ann Galloway at VTdigger.org saves the day) http://vtdigger.org/2010/09/01/more-time-sir-um-probably-not/
3. How did Shumlin do it? Pundits, including us, argued before the election he was in third place at best. They argued he had a weak field organization and a smart but inexperienced campaign manager: Alex McLean. The answer is complex. First, Shumlin was the best candidate and the best campaigner. His early and often television ads worked. His direct mail was very good; his field organization: good enough. The large turnout helped. Phil Scott, the GOP candidate for lieutenant governor, helped; he kept Republicans in their own primary. Democrats made their decisions very late and in the end enough voters liked Shumlin to give him an edge. And finally Alex McLean proved her mettle; she skillfully managed the candidate and the campaign. There is a guy in our office who said: #$@%@% it. I’m voting for Shumlin. Stranegly, that captures something.
5. Why were all the smart people – including uber pundit Eric Davis – so wrong about turnout? We confidently predicted a 40,000 to 50,000 turnout and more than 70,000 showed up. First, there were five really good candidates. Vermonters are informed and care; they turned out because they had real choices. Second, Matt Dunne brought more people, probably first time voters, to the polls. His plan for victory was 15,000 votes. He did that. Third, the pundits, us included, are often clueless and at best making an intelligent guess. We were wrong.
6. Some street chatter has Dubie’s people wanting to run against Shumlin. We doubt it. Shumlin is a brilliant politician who is a “chess player in a town of checkers players.” Ok we stole that line from President Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe, but the shoe fits. Shumlin is usually two steps ahead. His challenge will be to stay ahead tactically but align his message with where Vermonters live their daily lives. By the way, he shopuld accept Dubie’s offer of 12 debates NOW.
7. In a long ago blog post, we said “Dubie Wins!” That is less true now. This is a very Democratic state and the primary showed Democrats are engaged. Dubie has embraced several positions that are anathema to Democrats and independents: he is pro life, supports the death penalty and taxpayer money for religious schools etc. But this recount is very sticky. It could seriously cripple Democratic fundraising and delay the start of a targeted, tactical campaign. Democrats will be wise to use this period to unify their disparate campaigns into a single, effective, efficient winning organization.
8. Who wins? There is no democratic candidate and our office is divided. So we’ll make a prediction in a month!
